The idea of secession needs to become acceptable, before it can happen.
Right now most Americans are of the opinion that the Civil War “decided” the matter of secession. In other words they buy into the “might makes right” theory of politics. So even in States where one might hope it would be possible to form a political movement for secession, there is almost zero support for it. People who call for it are branded as kooks. The most common refrain in dismissing them is “that was settled in the Civil War.”
Therefore, those who favor the deconstruction of the USA into smaller less destructive States, have two tasks that need to be undertaken simultaneously: make secession an acceptable idea again, and simultaneously lay the groundwork for one or more specific secessions that are pleasing to our communities.
A lot of people are working on the latter task, but no one is really working on the former. Sure there are occasional articles and books on the topic of “the South was legally right in their secession”, but that only has fringe appeal, and such arguments quickly becomes bogged down in discussions of slavery.
A new approach is needed to advance the concept of secession as a viable option for the United States.
The best way to make the secession idea acceptable is to find the most sympathetic poster child for the cause, and promote them. This is a proven tactic that the Left uses constantly, and effectively.
In the USA the most sympathetic poster child for secession is Hawaii.
Hawaii, unlike all other states, was an independent nation with diplomatic recognition from many other states, for decades, prior to incorporation into the USA. It had an undisputed government, and an equally clear indigenous people who the islands belonged to. The Hawaiians had been the sole inhabitants of the islands for at least 1000 years.
The Kingdom of Hawaii lasted from 1795 until its overthrow in 1893. This is a historical fact which is not subject to dispute. While their are some other short lived Republics in American history, all of them were essentially interregnums.
Vermont, which was reluctant to join the Union, was the longest holdout in the Revolutionary period. From 1777 to 1791 they were an independent entity, although their sovereignty was in question until the British surrender in 1781. Their entrance into the Union was both a democratic exercise and voluntary.
The Republic of Texas also lasted about 10 years, from the defeat of Mexico until the successful bid to join the United States, in 1845. This was preceded by an election where a large majority of Texans approved of Statehood.
In marked contrast, the much older Hawaiian Monarchy was overthrown by a small group of white citizens of Hawaii who were backed by the United States government, including the US Marines.
This is therefore, the perfect modern morality play. We can use the Left’s own themes against them. “A successful country run by brown people and for brown people was violently overthrown by white men. A successful female head of state was deposed and replaced with a man. It is a clear case of neo-colonialism.”
If a large enough secession movement could win a referendum in Hawaii it would be very very difficult for a Democratic run government to do anything but grant the secession. Those opposing it would be branded as racists, sexists, colonialists and fascists.
One can easily imagine thought leaders of the Democratic Party like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Maxine Waters making impassioned speeches, and President Michelle Obama signing the resulting law granting Hawaii independence.
At that point the floodgates are opened, and the rest of the States and regions seeking independence can flow through them.
Illustration: Sanford B. Dole proclaims the Republic of Hawaiʻi on the front steps of the ʻIolani Palace on July 4, 1894. – Wikicommons.